Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.358837 25.656706 28.238829 31.389826 35.180329 39.660002 45.460655
2025-02-02 20.107247 23.088560 26.715600 31.576708 38.133767 47.034180 60.788802
2025-02-09 17.982180 21.333259 25.662943 31.922518 41.255415 55.739403 82.982619
2025-02-16 16.362772 19.894224 24.673379 32.020774 43.970788 65.044731 114.337838
2025-02-23 14.988668 18.556423 23.555885 31.620992 45.718971 73.627276 155.936715
2025-03-02 14.012825 17.626881 22.851415 31.663362 48.186390 85.153330 231.822936
2025-03-09 13.143740 16.741768 22.073634 31.400953 49.976446 96.565450 358.722296
2025-03-16 12.402735 15.963985 21.353052 31.083426 51.544469 108.926042 618.892459
2025-03-23 11.769926 15.287046 20.707513 30.774687 53.036740 122.859822 1363.320483
2025-03-30 11.245823 14.729223 20.190250 30.609451 54.824922 140.459986 8168.953431
2025-04-06 10.696357 14.090800 19.475952 29.947709 55.183441 153.259446 NaN
2025-04-13 10.542512 14.054608 19.765741 31.329464 61.524323 209.921123 NaN
2025-04-20 10.124656 13.576899 19.259965 31.005364 63.006972 244.382772 NaN
2025-04-27 9.803882 13.235472 18.965121 31.095429 65.896186 305.685791 NaN
2025-05-04 9.537889 12.965808 18.773978 31.387028 69.679317 409.017687 NaN
2025-05-11 9.265354 12.668293 18.505710 31.460638 72.816847 552.835213 NaN
2025-05-18 8.956498 12.293164 18.064332 31.062193 74.037408 699.248068 NaN
2025-05-25 8.722781 12.031761 17.816454 31.098348 77.140110 1055.134882 NaN
2025-06-01 8.472619 11.729764 17.469420 30.841388 78.935788 1586.921727 NaN
2025-06-08 8.233995 11.436329 17.119247 30.532170 80.426887 2627.091428 NaN
2025-06-15 8.012034 11.161708 16.788161 30.232023 81.900568 5513.948440 NaN
2025-06-22 7.818542 10.927892 16.522330 30.071396 84.093247 39925.012467 NaN
2025-06-29 7.587873 10.620551 16.094080 29.428834 83.474275 NaN NaN